Playoff · Playoff Match 4 R1
APEX prediction
Predicted winner
Red alliance
Predicted score
267.04 – 178.27
75%25%
Actual result
Winner
Blue alliance
Final score
181 – 283
Prediction missed · off by 95.4 points
red allianceTotal Season APEX 476.5 ±11.7
Season APEX 118.6Event APEX 26.51Rank 20Record 5-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 202.6Event APEX 107.74Rank 14Record 4-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 155.3Event APEX 132.79Rank 4Record 7-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100
blue allianceTotal Season APEX 371.9 ±13.9
Season APEX 154.2Event APEX 102.33Rank 8Record 6-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 107.6Event APEX 47.96Rank 33Record 3-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 110.1Event APEX 27.98Rank 44Record 2-6-0Status establishedConfidence 92
Scouting breakdown
Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.
Red · 1601, 4027, 9406
81
/ 100 compatProjected
267 pts
~2.1 RP (regional)
Teams: 1601, 4027, 9406
Auto
48.9 19%
Teleop
149.9 57%
Endgame
63.9 24%
Strengths
- · Well-balanced across phases
- · Elite combined APEX
Weaknesses
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 53%
Supercharged: 3%
Traversal: 3%
Blue · 3173, 2614, 451
64
/ 100 compatProjected
178.3 pts
~0.9 RP (regional)
Teams: 3173, 2614, 451
Auto
30.1 18%
Teleop
111.6 66%
Endgame
28.5 17%
Strengths
–
Weaknesses
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 53%
Supercharged: 3%
Traversal: 3%
Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.09 · Blue 0.9
Formula
RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)
Inputs
Rule setRegional
Red projected score267pts
Blue projected score178.3pts
Red win probability75%
Event bonus sample164alliance-matches
Adjustments
Energized bonusred 53%, blue 36%
Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%
Traversal bonusred 3%, blue 2%
- Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
- Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
- Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).
Prediction detail
- Predicted margin
- 88.8
- Score range
- 150–295
- Upset likelihood
- 25%
- Data cutoff
- 2026-08-15
- Model
- apex-0.4.0
Red vs Blue
Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)
476.5Season APEX371.9
48.9Auto30.1
149.9Teleop111.6
63.9Endgame28.5
0Consistency53
Score breakdown
Official phase points (TBA)
| Phase | Red | Blue |
|---|---|---|
| auto | 55 | 35 |
| teleop | 91 | 170 |
| endgame | 35 | 78 |
| foul | 0 | 0 |
| total | 181 | 283 |
Result
Final score
181 – 283
Prediction missed · off by 95.4 pts
Match videos
Watch right here, no need to leave the page.