Playoff · Playoff Match 3 R1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

329.02 – 143.03

91%9%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

399 – 163

Prediction correct · off by 45 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 538.9 ±11.7

3990Tech for Kids

Season APEX 192.3Event APEX 139.87Rank 3Record 7-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2641Pittsburgh Central Catholic Robotics

Season APEX 60.4Event APEX 5.83Rank 43Record 2-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4028The Beak Squad

Season APEX 286.2Event APEX 183.32Rank 6Record 6-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 424.1 ±17.5

4467Titanium Titans

Season APEX 191.4Event APEX 83.27Rank 12Record 5-3-0Status establishedConfidence 92

10513Team Humanity Robo Falcons

Provisional

Season APEX 105.3Event APEX 40.5Rank 9Record 6-2-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

5667The Digital Eagles

Season APEX 127.4Event APEX 19.26Rank 16Record 5-3-0Status establishedConfidence 92

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3990, 2641, 4028

/ 100 compat

Projected

329 pts

~2.3 RP (regional)

Teams: 3990, 2641, 4028

Auto

87.9 27%

Teleop

183.4 56%

Endgame

56.3 17%

Strengths

· 4028 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 40%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4467, 10513, 5667

/ 100 compat

Projected

143 pts

~0.8 RP (regional)

Teams: 4467, 10513, 5667

Auto

28.4 22%

Teleop

82.0 62%

Endgame

20.8 16%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 40%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.28 · Blue 0.78

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score329pts

Blue projected score143pts

Red win probability91%

Event bonus sample164alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 40%, blue 55%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 186
Score range: 115–357
Upset likelihood: 9%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 562 vs event baseline 153.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

538.9Season APEX424.1

87.9Auto28.4

183.4Teleop82

56.3Endgame20.8

11Consistency13

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	115	30
teleop	183	83
endgame	101	40
foul	0	10
total	399	163

Result

Final score

399 – 163

Prediction correct · off by 45 pts

Match videos

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