Playoff · Playoff Match 2 R1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

224.3 – 125.33

77%23%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

279 – 99

Prediction correct · off by 40.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 516.1 ±14.4

1511Rolling Thunder

Season APEX 205.3Event APEX 92.33Rank 5Record 7-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4050Biohazard

Season APEX 40.4Event APEX 4.71Rank 48Record 1-7-0Status establishedConfidence 77

117Steel Dragons

Season APEX 270.4Event APEX 127.26Rank 11Record 5-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 368.2 ±17

7515Dark Side Robotics

Season APEX 106.8Event APEX 15.08Rank 21Record 5-3-0Status establishedConfidence 91

2656Quasics

Provisional

Season APEX 108.2Event APEX 43.22Rank 7Record 7-1-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

5740Trojanators

Season APEX 153.2Event APEX 67.03Rank 13Record 5-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1511, 4050, 117

/ 100 compat

Projected

224.3 pts

~2.0 RP (regional)

Teams: 1511, 4050, 117

Auto

30.5 14%

Teleop

110.8 51%

Endgame

75.2 35%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 41%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 7515, 2656, 5740

/ 100 compat

Projected

125.3 pts

~1.0 RP (regional)

Teams: 7515, 2656, 5740

Auto

22.1 17%

Teleop

79.5 62%

Endgame

26.8 21%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 41%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.99 · Blue 0.97

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score224.3pts

Blue projected score125.3pts

Red win probability77%

Event bonus sample164alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 41%, blue 45%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 99
Score range: 98–251
Upset likelihood: 23%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 378 vs event baseline 152.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

516.1Season APEX368.2

30.5Auto22.1

110.8Teleop79.5

75.2Endgame26.8

55Consistency11

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	40	22
teleop	175	55
endgame	54	22
foul	10	0
total	279	99

Result

Final score

279 – 99

Prediction correct · off by 40.5 pts

Match videos

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