Playoff · Playoff Match 1 R1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

430.17 – 127.69

98%2%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

498 – 199

Prediction correct · off by 69.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 650.2 ±14.3

340G.R.R. (Greater Rochester Robotics)

Season APEX 265.2Event APEX 178.68Rank 1Record 8-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4991Horsepower

Provisional

Season APEX 72.5Event APEX 20.14Rank 45Record 2-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

3015Ranger Robotics

A+

Season APEX 312.5Event APEX 231.35Rank 2Record 7-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 342.3 ±16

1708AMP'D Robotics

Season APEX 76Event APEX 43.5Rank 24Record 4-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4269CardinalBots

Provisional

Season APEX 116.6Event APEX 60.7Rank 10Record 6-2-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

1816"The Green Machine"

Season APEX 149.7Event APEX 23.49Rank 17Record 5-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 340, 4991, 3015

/ 100 compat

Projected

430.2 pts

~2.5 RP (regional)

Teams: 340, 4991, 3015

Auto

92.1 21%

Teleop

240.0 56%

Endgame

97.1 23%

Strengths

· 3015 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 44%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1708, 4269, 1816

/ 100 compat

Projected

127.7 pts

~0.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 1708, 4269, 1816

Auto

14.1 11%

Teleop

71.3 57%

Endgame

39.2 31%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 44%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.47 · Blue 0.56

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score430.2pts

Blue projected score127.7pts

Red win probability98%

Event bonus sample164alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 44%, blue 47%

Supercharged bonusred 5%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 302.5
Score range: 101–457
Upset likelihood: 2%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 697 vs event baseline 149.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

650.2Season APEX342.3

92.1Auto14.1

240Teleop71.3

97.1Endgame39.2

69Consistency77

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	114	34
teleop	273	110
endgame	111	55
foul	0	0
total	498	199

Result

Final score

498 – 199

Prediction correct · off by 69.6 pts

Match videos

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