Playoff · Playoff Match 13 R5

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

381.53 – 240.61

85%15%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

342 – 271

Prediction correct · off by 35 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 538.9 ±11.7

2641Pittsburgh Central Catholic Robotics

Season APEX 60.4Event APEX 23.18Rank 43Record 2-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3990Tech for Kids

Season APEX 192.3Event APEX 154.55Rank 3Record 7-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4028The Beak Squad

Season APEX 286.2Event APEX 203.8Rank 6Record 6-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 516.1 ±14.4

117Steel Dragons

Season APEX 270.4Event APEX 129.18Rank 11Record 5-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4050Biohazard

Season APEX 40.4Event APEX 12.27Rank 48Record 1-7-0Status establishedConfidence 77

1511Rolling Thunder

Season APEX 205.3Event APEX 99.16Rank 5Record 7-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2641, 3990, 4028

/ 100 compat

Projected

381.5 pts

~2.2 RP (regional)

Teams: 2641, 3990, 4028

Auto

102.0 27%

Teleop

200.6 53%

Endgame

78.2 21%

Strengths

· 4028 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 40%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 117, 4050, 1511

/ 100 compat

Projected

240.6 pts

~0.7 RP (regional)

Teams: 117, 4050, 1511

Auto

34.0 14%

Teleop

127.9 54%

Endgame

73.4 31%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 40%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.16 · Blue 0.74

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score381.5pts

Blue projected score240.6pts

Red win probability85%

Event bonus sample164alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 40%, blue 41%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 140.9
Score range: 211–412
Upset likelihood: 15%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 613 vs event baseline 165.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

538.9Season APEX516.1

102Auto34

200.6Teleop127.9

78.2Endgame73.4

0Consistency34

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	94	40
teleop	182	159
endgame	66	72
foul	0	0
total	342	271

Result

Final score

342 – 271

Prediction correct · off by 35 pts

Match videos

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