Playoff · Playoff Match 12 R4

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

208.77 – 241.92

40%60%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

180 – 232

Prediction correct · off by 19.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 371.9 ±13.9

3173IgKnighters

Season APEX 154.2Event APEX 110.35Rank 8Record 6-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2614Mountaineer Area RoboticS (MARS)

Season APEX 107.6Event APEX 59.23Rank 33Record 3-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

451Cat Attack Robotics

Season APEX 110.1Event APEX 39.19Rank 44Record 2-6-0Status establishedConfidence 92

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 516.1 ±14.4

1511Rolling Thunder

Season APEX 205.3Event APEX 99.66Rank 5Record 7-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4050Biohazard

Season APEX 40.4Event APEX 12.97Rank 48Record 1-7-0Status establishedConfidence 77

117Steel Dragons

Season APEX 270.4Event APEX 129.29Rank 11Record 5-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3173, 2614, 451

/ 100 compat

Projected

208.8 pts

~1.2 RP (regional)

Teams: 3173, 2614, 451

Auto

32.4 16%

Teleop

122.3 61%

Endgame

46.9 23%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 36%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1511, 4050, 117

/ 100 compat

Projected

241.9 pts

~1.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 1511, 4050, 117

Auto

31.9 14%

Teleop

132.9 56%

Endgame

70.9 30%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 36%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.2 · Blue 1.65

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score208.8pts

Blue projected score241.9pts

Red win probability40%

Event bonus sample164alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 36%, blue 41%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -33.1
Score range: 179–272
Upset likelihood: 40%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 412 vs event baseline 165.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

371.9Season APEX516.1

32.4Auto31.9

122.3Teleop132.9

46.9Endgame70.9

30Consistency31

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	47	46
teleop	89	98
endgame	44	88
foul	0	0
total	180	232

Result

Final score

180 – 232

Prediction correct · off by 19.3 pts

Match videos

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