Playoff · Playoff Match 11 R4

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

436.08 – 383.37

66%34%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

456 – 374

Prediction correct · off by 14.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 726.1 ±11.9

340G.R.R. (Greater Rochester Robotics)

Season APEX 265.2Event APEX 185.74Rank 1Record 8-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3504Girls of Steel

Season APEX 148.4Event APEX 15.41Rank 18Record 4-4-0Status establishedConfidence 91

3015Ranger Robotics

A+

Season APEX 312.5Event APEX 234.93Rank 2Record 7-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 538.9 ±11.7

3990Tech for Kids

Season APEX 192.3Event APEX 155.24Rank 3Record 7-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2641Pittsburgh Central Catholic Robotics

Season APEX 60.4Event APEX 23.55Rank 43Record 2-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4028The Beak Squad

Season APEX 286.2Event APEX 204.58Rank 6Record 6-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 340, 3504, 3015

/ 100 compat

Projected

436.1 pts

~2.0 RP (regional)

Teams: 340, 3504, 3015

Auto

96.4 22%

Teleop

236.6 55%

Endgame

99.9 23%

Strengths

· 3015 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 56%

Supercharged: 8%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3990, 2641, 4028

/ 100 compat

Projected

383.4 pts

~1.1 RP (regional)

Teams: 3990, 2641, 4028

Auto

94.6 25%

Teleop

210.7 55%

Endgame

77.2 20%

Strengths

· 4028 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 56%

Supercharged: 8%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.98 · Blue 1.14

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score436.1pts

Blue projected score383.4pts

Red win probability66%

Event bonus sample164alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 56%, blue 40%

Supercharged bonusred 8%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 52.7
Score range: 354–465
Upset likelihood: 34%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 830 vs event baseline 161.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

726.1Season APEX538.9

96.4Auto94.6

236.6Teleop210.7

99.9Endgame77.2

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	95	135
teleop	220	154
endgame	136	85
foul	5	0
total	456	374

Result

Final score

456 – 374

Prediction correct · off by 14.6 pts

Match videos

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