Playoff · Playoff Match 10 R3

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

210.82 – 140.2

71%29%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

199 – 131

Prediction correct · off by 10.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 371.9 ±13.9

3173IgKnighters

Season APEX 154.2Event APEX 110.81Rank 8Record 6-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2614Mountaineer Area RoboticS (MARS)

Season APEX 107.6Event APEX 60.08Rank 33Record 3-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

451Cat Attack Robotics

Season APEX 110.1Event APEX 39.93Rank 44Record 2-6-0Status establishedConfidence 92

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 342.3 ±16

1816"The Green Machine"

Season APEX 149.7Event APEX 28.4Rank 17Record 5-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4269CardinalBots

Provisional

Season APEX 116.6Event APEX 64.21Rank 10Record 6-2-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

1708AMP'D Robotics

Season APEX 76Event APEX 47.59Rank 24Record 4-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3173, 2614, 451

/ 100 compat

Projected

210.8 pts

~1.8 RP (regional)

Teams: 3173, 2614, 451

Auto

31.5 15%

Teleop

127.6 63%

Endgame

44.2 22%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 36%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1816, 4269, 1708

/ 100 compat

Projected

140.2 pts

~1.1 RP (regional)

Teams: 1816, 4269, 1708

Auto

21.8 17%

Teleop

76.1 58%

Endgame

33.6 26%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 36%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.82 · Blue 1.1

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score210.8pts

Blue projected score140.2pts

Red win probability71%

Event bonus sample164alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 36%, blue 47%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 70.6
Score range: 111–240
Upset likelihood: 29%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Playoff

Standard match.

Combined score 330 vs event baseline 161.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

371.9Season APEX342.3

31.5Auto21.8

127.6Teleop76.1

44.2Endgame33.6

23Consistency93

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	37	31
teleop	99	77
endgame	58	23
foul	5	0
total	199	131

Result

Final score

199 – 131

Prediction correct · off by 10.5 pts

Match videos

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