Qualification · Qualification 9

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

59.51 – 176.94

19%81%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

38 – 175

Prediction correct · off by 11.7 points

Limited current-season data (8 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 191.7 ±19.3

3324The Metrobots

Season APEX 65.7Event APEX 7.71Rank 47Record 1-7-0Status establishedConfidence 86

4050Biohazard

Season APEX 40.4Event APEX -Rank 48Record 1-7-0Status establishedConfidence 77

9653O.V.R.T.

Provisional

Season APEX 85.6Event APEX 29.71Rank 15Record 5-3-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 323.3 ±19.3

10517Ctrl Alt Defeat

Provisional

Season APEX 72.7Event APEX -Rank 28Record 4-4-0Status provisionalConfidence 70

9406TechJunior

Season APEX 155.3Event APEX 61.14Rank 4Record 7-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9475Mon Valley Mammoths

Provisional

Season APEX 95.3Event APEX 93.71Rank 32Record 3-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 70

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3324, 4050, 9653

/ 100 compat

Projected

59.5 pts

~0.8 RP (regional)

Teams: 3324, 4050, 9653

Auto

14.3 24%

Teleop

31.9 54%

Endgame

13.3 22%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 36%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10517, 9406, 9475

/ 100 compat

Projected

176.9 pts

~2.2 RP (regional)

Teams: 10517, 9406, 9475

Auto

38.1 22%

Teleop

100.2 57%

Endgame

37.3 21%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 36%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 0.78 · Blue 2.21

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score59.5pts

Blue projected score176.9pts

Red win probability19%

Event bonus sample164alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 36%, blue 53%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -117.4
Score range: 36–201
Upset likelihood: 19%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 213 vs event baseline 132.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

191.7Season APEX323.3

7.7Auto31.4

20.9Teleop89.1

8.9Endgame32.9

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	6	39
teleop	24	102
endgame	8	34
foul	0	0
total	38	175

Result

Final score

38 – 175

Prediction correct · off by 11.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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