Qualification · Qualification 8

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

65.07 – 65.07

50%50%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

263 – 36

Prediction correct · off by 113.5 points

Limited current-season data (7 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 436.3 ±16.9

4028The Beak Squad

Season APEX 286.2Event APEX -Rank 6Record 6-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2234Alternating Current

Season APEX 96.9Event APEX -Rank 22Record 4-4-0Status establishedConfidence 91

10512Beyond Grad Greyhounds

Provisional

Season APEX 53.2Event APEX -Rank 37Record 3-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 70

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 276.1 ±19.4

4991Horsepower

Provisional

Season APEX 72.5Event APEX -Rank 45Record 2-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

1601Quantum Samurai

Season APEX 118.6Event APEX -Rank 20Record 5-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10516Code Red

Provisional

Season APEX 85Event APEX -Rank 34Record 3-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 70

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4028, 2234, 10512

/ 100 compat

Projected

65.1 pts

~1.5 RP (regional)

Teams: 4028, 2234, 10512

Auto

19.5 30%

Teleop

32.5 50%

Endgame

13.0 20%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 48%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4991, 1601, 10516

/ 100 compat

Projected

65.1 pts

~1.4 RP (regional)

Teams: 4991, 1601, 10516

Auto

19.5 30%

Teleop

32.5 50%

Endgame

13.0 20%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 48%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.53 · Blue 1.38

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score65.1pts

Blue projected score65.1pts

Red win probability50%

Event bonus sample164alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 48%, blue 34%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 0
Score range: 42–88
Upset likelihood: 50%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 299 vs event baseline 130.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

436.3Season APEX276.1

-Auto-

-Teleop-

-Endgame-

-Consistency-

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	42	10
teleop	182	13
endgame	39	13
foul	0	0
total	263	36

Result

Final score

263 – 36

Prediction correct · off by 113.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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