Qualification · Qualification 7
APEX prediction
Predicted winner
Red alliance
Predicted score
64.96 – 64.96
50%50%
Actual result
Winner
Red alliance
Final score
243 – 20
Prediction correct · off by 111.5 points
Limited current-season data (6 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.
red allianceTotal Season APEX 405.9 ±12.8
Season APEX 192.3Event APEX -Rank 3Record 7-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 153.2Event APEX -Rank 13Record 5-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 60.4Event APEX -Rank 43Record 2-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97
blue allianceTotal Season APEX 373.3 ±17.5
10515Aluminum Tethys
Provisional
Season APEX 41.5Event APEX -Rank 49Record 1-7-0Status provisionalConfidence 70
Season APEX 202.6Event APEX -Rank 14Record 4-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 129.2Event APEX -Rank 42Record 2-6-0Status establishedConfidence 85
Scouting breakdown
Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.
Red · 3990, 5740, 2641
50
/ 100 compatProjected
65 pts
~1.4 RP (regional)
Teams: 3990, 5740, 2641
Auto
19.5 30%
Teleop
32.5 50%
Endgame
13.0 20%
Strengths
- · Well-balanced across phases
Weaknesses
- · Below-average combined firepower
RP bonus probability
Energized: 40%
Supercharged: 3%
Traversal: 2%
Blue · 10515, 4027, 10582
50
/ 100 compatProjected
65 pts
~1.4 RP (regional)
Teams: 10515, 4027, 10582
Auto
19.5 30%
Teleop
32.5 50%
Endgame
13.0 20%
Strengths
- · Well-balanced across phases
Weaknesses
- · Below-average combined firepower
RP bonus probability
Energized: 40%
Supercharged: 3%
Traversal: 2%
Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.45 · Blue 1.44
Formula
RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)
Inputs
Rule setRegional
Red projected score65pts
Blue projected score65pts
Red win probability50%
Event bonus sample164alliance-matches
Adjustments
Energized bonusred 40%, blue 39%
Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%
Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 3%
- Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
- Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
- Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).
Prediction detail
- Predicted margin
- 0
- Score range
- 42–88
- Upset likelihood
- 50%
- Data cutoff
- 2026-08-15
- Model
- apex-0.4.0
Red vs Blue
Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)
405.9Season APEX373.3
-Auto-
-Teleop-
-Endgame-
-Consistency-
Score breakdown
Official phase points (TBA)
| Phase | Red | Blue |
|---|---|---|
| auto | 64 | 9 |
| teleop | 153 | 11 |
| endgame | 26 | 0 |
| foul | 0 | 0 |
| total | 243 | 20 |
Result
Final score
243 – 20
Prediction correct · off by 111.5 pts
Score check across official sources:
agree
Match videos
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