Qualification · Qualification 65

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

149.26 – 421.19

3%97%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

151 – 501

Prediction correct · off by 40.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 380.4 ±16.9

8705Sci Tech FRC

Provisional

Season APEX 71Event APEX 26.37Rank 40Record 2-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 70

7515Dark Side Robotics

Season APEX 106.8Event APEX 13.39Rank 21Record 5-3-0Status establishedConfidence 91

4027Centre Punch

Season APEX 202.6Event APEX 109.5Rank 14Record 4-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 659.2 ±11.9

4467Titanium Titans

Season APEX 191.4Event APEX 74.82Rank 12Record 5-3-0Status establishedConfidence 92

9406TechJunior

Season APEX 155.3Event APEX 122.94Rank 4Record 7-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3015Ranger Robotics

A+

Season APEX 312.5Event APEX 223.43Rank 2Record 7-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8705, 7515, 4027

/ 100 compat

Projected

149.3 pts

~0.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 8705, 7515, 4027

Auto

36.8 25%

Teleop

60.5 40%

Endgame

52.2 35%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 43%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 8%

Blue · 4467, 9406, 3015

/ 100 compat

Projected

421.2 pts

~2.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 4467, 9406, 3015

Auto

86.0 21%

Teleop

244.7 60%

Endgame

79.0 19%

Strengths

· 3015 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 43%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 8%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 0.59 · Blue 2.65

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score149.3pts

Blue projected score421.2pts

Red win probability3%

Event bonus sample164alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 43%, blue 61%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 9%

Traversal bonusred 8%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -271.9
Score range: 122–448
Upset likelihood: 3%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 652 vs event baseline 147.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

380.4Season APEX659.2

36.8Auto86

60.5Teleop244.7

52.2Endgame79

26Consistency19

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	48	108
teleop	77	258
endgame	26	125
foul	0	10
total	151	501

Result

Final score

151 – 501

Prediction correct · off by 40.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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