Qualification · Qualification 64

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

277.47 – 116.69

88%12%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

234 – 87

Prediction correct · off by 36.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 499.1 ±18.7

4028The Beak Squad

Season APEX 286.2Event APEX 191.41Rank 6Record 6-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7274Brashear Bulls Robotics

Provisional

Season APEX 96.3Event APEX 19.54Rank 30Record 4-4-0Status provisionalConfidence 70

4269CardinalBots

Provisional

Season APEX 116.6Event APEX 66.52Rank 10Record 6-2-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 285.2 ±16.3

4050Biohazard

Season APEX 40.4Event APEX 4.87Rank 48Record 1-7-0Status establishedConfidence 77

3484Short Circuit

Season APEX 91.6Event APEX 43.34Rank 19Record 5-3-0Status establishedConfidence 86

5740Trojanators

Season APEX 153.2Event APEX 68.48Rank 13Record 5-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4028, 7274, 4269

/ 100 compat

Projected

277.5 pts

~2.3 RP (regional)

Teams: 4028, 7274, 4269

Auto

71.6 26%

Teleop

148.9 54%

Endgame

54.7 20%

Strengths

· 4028 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 48%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4050, 3484, 5740

/ 100 compat

Projected

116.7 pts

~0.7 RP (regional)

Teams: 4050, 3484, 5740

Auto

22.6 20%

Teleop

59.6 53%

Endgame

31.2 28%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 48%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.29 · Blue 0.67

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score277.5pts

Blue projected score116.7pts

Red win probability88%

Event bonus sample164alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 48%, blue 39%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 160.8
Score range: 90–304
Upset likelihood: 12%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 321 vs event baseline 147.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

499.1Season APEX285.2

71.6Auto22.6

148.9Teleop59.6

54.7Endgame31.2

27Consistency20

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	73	13
teleop	99	60
endgame	62	14
foul	0	0
total	234	87

Result

Final score

234 – 87

Prediction correct · off by 36.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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