Qualification · Qualification 63

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

127.57 – 107.26

56%44%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

131 – 141

Prediction missed · off by 18.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 361.3 ±19.8

10513Team Humanity Robo Falcons

Provisional

Season APEX 105.3Event APEX 43.22Rank 9Record 6-2-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

5667The Digital Eagles

Season APEX 127.4Event APEX 14.76Rank 16Record 5-3-0Status establishedConfidence 92

9022MC Robotics

Provisional

Season APEX 128.6Event APEX 69.59Rank 25Record 3-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 70

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 482.9 ±15.2

1511Rolling Thunder

Season APEX 205.3Event APEX 89.17Rank 5Record 7-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10582The Technochauns

Season APEX 129.2Event APEX -0.53Rank 42Record 2-6-0Status establishedConfidence 85

3504Girls of Steel

Season APEX 148.4Event APEX 18.62Rank 18Record 4-4-0Status establishedConfidence 91

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10513, 5667, 9022

/ 100 compat

Projected

127.6 pts

~1.8 RP (regional)

Teams: 10513, 5667, 9022

Auto

31.4 24%

Teleop

78.2 61%

Endgame

19.0 15%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 58%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1511, 10582, 3504

/ 100 compat

Projected

107.3 pts

~1.4 RP (regional)

Teams: 1511, 10582, 3504

Auto

17.5 17%

Teleop

44.6 44%

Endgame

40.4 39%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 58%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.75 · Blue 1.37

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score127.6pts

Blue projected score107.3pts

Red win probability56%

Event bonus sample164alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 58%, blue 44%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 20.3
Score range: 80–155
Upset likelihood: 44%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Close match

Combined score 272 vs event baseline 147.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

361.3Season APEX482.9

31.4Auto17.5

78.2Teleop44.6

19Endgame40.4

3Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	28	23
teleop	76	53
endgame	12	65
foul	15	0
total	131	141

Result

Final score

131 – 141

Prediction missed · off by 18.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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