Qualification · Qualification 62

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

61.05 – 207.46

14%86%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

57 – 207

Prediction correct · off by 2.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 225.9 ±20.5

63McDowell Robotics Team 63

Provisional

Season APEX 75.2Event APEX 34.53Rank 26Record 4-4-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

10516Code Red

Provisional

Season APEX 85Event APEX 30.04Rank 34Record 3-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 70

3324The Metrobots

Season APEX 65.7Event APEX -3.52Rank 47Record 1-7-0Status establishedConfidence 86

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 414.9 ±18.7

2656Quasics

Provisional

Season APEX 108.2Event APEX 45.42Rank 7Record 7-1-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

10515Aluminum Tethys

Provisional

Season APEX 41.5Event APEX -15.1Rank 49Record 1-7-0Status provisionalConfidence 70

340G.R.R. (Greater Rochester Robotics)

Season APEX 265.2Event APEX 177.14Rank 1Record 8-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 63, 10516, 3324

/ 100 compat

Projected

61 pts

~0.7 RP (regional)

Teams: 63, 10516, 3324

Auto

15.2 26%

Teleop

25.6 44%

Endgame

17.4 30%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 42%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2656, 10515, 340

/ 100 compat

Projected

207.5 pts

~2.2 RP (regional)

Teams: 2656, 10515, 340

Auto

59.3 29%

Teleop

97.5 48%

Endgame

45.3 22%

Strengths

· 340 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 42%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 0.73 · Blue 2.23

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score61pts

Blue projected score207.5pts

Red win probability14%

Event bonus sample164alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 42%, blue 45%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 5%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -146.4
Score range: 34–234
Upset likelihood: 14%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 264 vs event baseline 147.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

225.9Season APEX414.9

15.2Auto59.3

25.6Teleop97.5

17.4Endgame45.3

21Consistency51

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	14	19
teleop	22	143
endgame	21	45
foul	0	0
total	57	207

Result

Final score

57 – 207

Prediction correct · off by 2.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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