Qualification · Qualification 60

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

174.97 – 99.6

72%28%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

199 – 105

Prediction correct · off by 14.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 439.8 ±16.2

117Steel Dragons

Season APEX 270.4Event APEX 123.35Rank 11Record 5-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2234Alternating Current

Season APEX 96.9Event APEX 26.14Rank 22Record 4-4-0Status establishedConfidence 91

4991Horsepower

Provisional

Season APEX 72.5Event APEX 25.48Rank 45Record 2-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 229.7 ±17.7

11456UMWACC Ruff Creek RoboMiners

Provisional

Season APEX 40.5Event APEX 1.61Rank 50Record 1-7-0Status provisionalConfidence 70

3260SHARP

Season APEX 81.6Event APEX 45.91Rank 36Record 2-6-0Status establishedConfidence 88

2614Mountaineer Area RoboticS (MARS)

Season APEX 107.6Event APEX 52.08Rank 33Record 3-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 117, 2234, 4991

/ 100 compat

Projected

175 pts

~1.9 RP (regional)

Teams: 117, 2234, 4991

Auto

34.5 20%

Teleop

97.7 57%

Endgame

39.1 23%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 46%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 11456, 3260, 2614

/ 100 compat

Projected

99.6 pts

~1.0 RP (regional)

Teams: 11456, 3260, 2614

Auto

30.2 32%

Teleop

48.8 52%

Endgame

15.7 17%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 46%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.93 · Blue 1.01

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score175pts

Blue projected score99.6pts

Red win probability72%

Event bonus sample164alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 46%, blue 40%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 75.4
Score range: 73–202
Upset likelihood: 28%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 304 vs event baseline 149.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

439.8Season APEX229.7

34.5Auto30.2

97.7Teleop48.8

39.1Endgame15.7

92Consistency2

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	44	14
teleop	117	56
endgame	38	35
foul	0	0
total	199	105

Result

Final score

199 – 105

Prediction correct · off by 14.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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