Qualification · Qualification 59

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

33.55 – 140.38

21%79%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

148 – 142

Prediction missed · off by 58 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 210.9 ±17.7

1708AMP'D Robotics

Season APEX 76Event APEX 21.99Rank 24Record 4-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

709Femme Tech Fatale

Season APEX 84.1Event APEX 30.5Rank 29Record 4-4-0Status establishedConfidence 91

10300Obama FRC

Provisional

Season APEX 50.8Event APEX -18.94Rank 39Record 3-4-0Status provisionalConfidence 70

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 353.2 ±16.9

4027Centre Punch

Season APEX 202.6Event APEX 106.99Rank 14Record 4-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4150FRobotics

Season APEX 77.9Event APEX 20.52Rank 35Record 3-5-0Status establishedConfidence 88

10517Ctrl Alt Defeat

Provisional

Season APEX 72.7Event APEX 12.87Rank 28Record 4-4-0Status provisionalConfidence 70

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1708, 709, 10300

/ 100 compat

Projected

33.6 pts

~0.8 RP (regional)

Teams: 1708, 709, 10300

Auto

5.6 17%

Teleop

1.4 4%

Endgame

26.6 79%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 39%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4027, 4150, 10517

/ 100 compat

Projected

140.4 pts

~2.1 RP (regional)

Teams: 4027, 4150, 10517

Auto

15.9 12%

Teleop

83.0 62%

Endgame

34.6 26%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 39%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 0.84 · Blue 2.12

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score33.6pts

Blue projected score140.4pts

Red win probability21%

Event bonus sample164alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 39%, blue 48%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -106.8
Score range: 7–167
Upset likelihood: 21%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Close match

Combined score 290 vs event baseline 149.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

210.9Season APEX353.2

5.6Auto15.9

1.4Teleop83

26.6Endgame34.6

55Consistency25

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	13	23
teleop	81	85
endgame	54	34
foul	0	0
total	148	142

Result

Final score

148 – 142

Prediction missed · off by 58 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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