Qualification · Qualification 57

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

280.7 – 106.89

90%10%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

327 – 138

Prediction correct · off by 38.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 589.1 ±12.2

1511Rolling Thunder

Season APEX 205.3Event APEX 83.09Rank 5Record 7-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1601Quantum Samurai

Season APEX 118.6Event APEX 22.08Rank 20Record 5-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

340G.R.R. (Greater Rochester Robotics)

Season APEX 265.2Event APEX 175.53Rank 1Record 8-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 336 ±19.8

4269CardinalBots

Provisional

Season APEX 116.6Event APEX 69.61Rank 10Record 6-2-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

3504Girls of Steel

Season APEX 148.4Event APEX 13.67Rank 18Record 4-4-0Status establishedConfidence 91

8705Sci Tech FRC

Provisional

Season APEX 71Event APEX 23.61Rank 40Record 2-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 70

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1511, 1601, 340

/ 100 compat

Projected

280.7 pts

~2.3 RP (regional)

Teams: 1511, 1601, 340

Auto

51.4 18%

Teleop

152.4 55%

Endgame

74.7 27%

Strengths

· 340 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4269, 3504, 8705

/ 100 compat

Projected

106.9 pts

~0.8 RP (regional)

Teams: 4269, 3504, 8705

Auto

31.0 30%

Teleop

30.3 29%

Endgame

41.8 41%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.33 · Blue 0.75

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score280.7pts

Blue projected score106.9pts

Red win probability90%

Event bonus sample164alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 49%, blue 48%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 173.8
Score range: 80–308
Upset likelihood: 10%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 465 vs event baseline 148.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

589.1Season APEX336

51.4Auto31

152.4Teleop30.3

74.7Endgame41.8

50Consistency44

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	39	48
teleop	173	42
endgame	115	48
foul	0	0
total	327	138

Result

Final score

327 – 138

Prediction correct · off by 38.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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