Qualification · Qualification 56

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

227.05 – 244.68

45%55%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

312 – 296

Prediction missed · off by 68.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 394.5 ±15.9

9406TechJunior

Season APEX 155.3Event APEX 111.98Rank 4Record 7-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10516Code Red

Provisional

Season APEX 85Event APEX 17.56Rank 34Record 3-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 70

3173IgKnighters

Season APEX 154.2Event APEX 97.51Rank 8Record 6-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 544 ±17.5

9022MC Robotics

Provisional

Season APEX 128.6Event APEX 65.68Rank 25Record 3-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 70

4028The Beak Squad

Season APEX 286.2Event APEX 186.2Rank 6Record 6-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10582The Technochauns

Season APEX 129.2Event APEX -7.2Rank 42Record 2-6-0Status establishedConfidence 85

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9406, 10516, 3173

/ 100 compat

Projected

227.1 pts

~1.5 RP (regional)

Teams: 9406, 10516, 3173

Auto

50.5 22%

Teleop

152.6 65%

Endgame

31.3 13%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 52%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9022, 4028, 10582

/ 100 compat

Projected

244.7 pts

~1.7 RP (regional)

Teams: 9022, 4028, 10582

Auto

56.4 23%

Teleop

142.9 59%

Endgame

44.9 18%

Strengths

· 4028 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 52%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.47 · Blue 1.66

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score227.1pts

Blue projected score244.7pts

Red win probability45%

Event bonus sample164alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 52%, blue 50%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -17.6
Score range: 201–271
Upset likelihood: 45%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

High scoring

Combined score 608 vs event baseline 145.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

394.5Season APEX544

50.5Auto56.4

152.6Teleop142.9

31.3Endgame44.9

16Consistency62

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	68	81
teleop	147	181
endgame	52	34
foul	45	0
total	312	296

Result

Final score

312 – 296

Prediction missed · off by 68.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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