Qualification · Qualification 55

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

156.37 – 46.57

80%20%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

271 – 65

Prediction correct · off by 66.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 472 ±12.2

2614Mountaineer Area RoboticS (MARS)

Season APEX 107.6Event APEX 42.49Rank 33Record 3-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

117Steel Dragons

Season APEX 270.4Event APEX 113.44Rank 11Record 5-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9642I.N.T. Robotics

Season APEX 94Event APEX 0.44Rank 27Record 4-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 154.1 ±18.8

9415Westinghouse Robotics

Provisional

Season APEX 53.3Event APEX 26.73Rank 38Record 3-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 70

2641Pittsburgh Central Catholic Robotics

Season APEX 60.4Event APEX 17.78Rank 43Record 2-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4050Biohazard

Season APEX 40.4Event APEX 2.06Rank 48Record 1-7-0Status establishedConfidence 77

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2614, 117, 9642

/ 100 compat

Projected

156.4 pts

~2.1 RP (regional)

Teams: 2614, 117, 9642

Auto

29.1 20%

Teleop

70.1 49%

Endgame

44.6 31%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 47%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9415, 2641, 4050

/ 100 compat

Projected

46.6 pts

~0.7 RP (regional)

Teams: 9415, 2641, 4050

Auto

8.9 22%

Teleop

19.7 49%

Endgame

11.4 29%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 47%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.1 · Blue 0.69

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score156.4pts

Blue projected score46.6pts

Red win probability80%

Event bonus sample164alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 47%, blue 25%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 109.8
Score range: 21–182
Upset likelihood: 20%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 336 vs event baseline 144.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

472Season APEX154.1

29.1Auto8.9

70.1Teleop19.7

44.6Endgame11.4

28Consistency60

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	52	5
teleop	144	40
endgame	60	20
foul	15	0
total	271	65

Result

Final score

271 – 65

Prediction correct · off by 66.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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