Qualification · Qualification 54

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

136.73 – 107.5

59%41%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

84 – 55

Prediction correct · off by 52.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 234.3 ±19.8

6032Pirate Robotics

Provisional

Season APEX 34.5Event APEX 26.26Rank 41Record 3-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 70

3484Short Circuit

Season APEX 91.6Event APEX 52.79Rank 19Record 5-3-0Status establishedConfidence 86

2656Quasics

Provisional

Season APEX 108.2Event APEX 57.68Rank 7Record 7-1-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 253.7 ±18.2

2234Alternating Current

Season APEX 96.9Event APEX 38.07Rank 22Record 4-4-0Status establishedConfidence 91

709Femme Tech Fatale

Season APEX 84.1Event APEX 46.86Rank 29Record 4-4-0Status establishedConfidence 91

10517Ctrl Alt Defeat

Provisional

Season APEX 72.7Event APEX 22.57Rank 28Record 4-4-0Status provisionalConfidence 70

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6032, 3484, 2656

/ 100 compat

Projected

136.7 pts

~1.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 6032, 3484, 2656

Auto

32.5 24%

Teleop

64.0 47%

Endgame

40.4 30%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 33%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2234, 709, 10517

/ 100 compat

Projected

107.5 pts

~1.4 RP (regional)

Teams: 2234, 709, 10517

Auto

29.5 28%

Teleop

40.1 38%

Endgame

35.4 34%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 33%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.56 · Blue 1.36

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score136.7pts

Blue projected score107.5pts

Red win probability59%

Event bonus sample164alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 33%, blue 50%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 29.2
Score range: 82–163
Upset likelihood: 41%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 139 vs event baseline 146.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

234.3Season APEX253.7

32.5Auto29.5

64Teleop40.1

40.4Endgame35.4

73Consistency23

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	16	9
teleop	54	14
endgame	14	32
foul	0	0
total	84	55

Result

Final score

84 – 55

Prediction correct · off by 52.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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