Qualification · Qualification 52

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

68.83 – 252.9

9%91%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

106 – 237

Prediction correct · off by 26.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 257.4 ±15.6

3260SHARP

Season APEX 81.6Event APEX 37.43Rank 36Record 2-6-0Status establishedConfidence 88

451Cat Attack Robotics

Season APEX 110.1Event APEX 43.16Rank 44Record 2-6-0Status establishedConfidence 92

3324The Metrobots

Season APEX 65.7Event APEX -11.76Rank 47Record 1-7-0Status establishedConfidence 86

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 438.5 ±19.1

63McDowell Robotics Team 63

Provisional

Season APEX 75.2Event APEX 38.87Rank 26Record 4-4-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

10300Obama FRC

Provisional

Season APEX 50.8Event APEX -11.07Rank 39Record 3-4-0Status provisionalConfidence 70

3015Ranger Robotics

A+

Season APEX 312.5Event APEX 225.1Rank 2Record 7-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3260, 451, 3324

/ 100 compat

Projected

68.8 pts

~0.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 3260, 451, 3324

Auto

18.8 26%

Teleop

34.1 48%

Endgame

18.2 26%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 38%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 63, 10300, 3015

/ 100 compat

Projected

252.9 pts

~2.3 RP (regional)

Teams: 63, 10300, 3015

Auto

68.2 27%

Teleop

134.1 53%

Endgame

51.0 20%

Strengths

· 3015 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 38%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 0.6 · Blue 2.31

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score68.8pts

Blue projected score252.9pts

Red win probability9%

Event bonus sample164alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 38%, blue 43%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -184.1
Score range: 43–279
Upset likelihood: 9%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 343 vs event baseline 146.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

257.4Season APEX438.5

18.8Auto68.2

34.1Teleop134.1

18.2Endgame51

44Consistency78

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	20	12
teleop	62	167
endgame	19	58
foul	5	0
total	106	237

Result

Final score

106 – 237

Prediction correct · off by 26.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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