Qualification · Qualification 51

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

45.86 – 146.09

22%78%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

32 – 108

Prediction correct · off by 26 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 244.4 ±19.7

10512Beyond Grad Greyhounds

Provisional

Season APEX 53.2Event APEX 29.94Rank 37Record 3-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 70

10515Aluminum Tethys

Provisional

Season APEX 41.5Event APEX -10.17Rank 49Record 1-7-0Status provisionalConfidence 70

1816"The Green Machine"

Season APEX 149.7Event APEX 26.09Rank 17Record 5-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 383 ±20.5

7274Brashear Bulls Robotics

Provisional

Season APEX 96.3Event APEX 26.47Rank 30Record 4-4-0Status provisionalConfidence 70

9475Mon Valley Mammoths

Provisional

Season APEX 95.3Event APEX 36.59Rank 32Record 3-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 70

4467Titanium Titans

Season APEX 191.4Event APEX 83.03Rank 12Record 5-3-0Status establishedConfidence 92

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10512, 10515, 1816

/ 100 compat

Projected

45.9 pts

~0.8 RP (regional)

Teams: 10512, 10515, 1816

Auto

1.8 5%

Teleop

24.6 62%

Endgame

13.5 34%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 36%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 7274, 9475, 4467

/ 100 compat

Projected

146.1 pts

~2.1 RP (regional)

Teams: 7274, 9475, 4467

Auto

23.1 17%

Teleop

74.2 55%

Endgame

38.3 28%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 36%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 0.84 · Blue 2.09

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score45.9pts

Blue projected score146.1pts

Red win probability22%

Event bonus sample164alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 36%, blue 49%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -100.2
Score range: 19–173
Upset likelihood: 22%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 140 vs event baseline 148.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

244.4Season APEX383

1.8Auto23.1

24.6Teleop74.2

13.5Endgame38.3

0Consistency19

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	11	27
teleop	16	35
endgame	5	31
foul	0	15
total	32	108

Result

Final score

32 – 108

Prediction correct · off by 26 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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