Qualification · Qualification 50

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

343.8 – 306.62

61%39%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

243 – 279

Prediction missed · off by 64.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 597 ±13.9

4028The Beak Squad

Season APEX 286.2Event APEX 199.02Rank 6Record 6-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4050Biohazard

Season APEX 40.4Event APEX 16.44Rank 48Record 1-7-0Status establishedConfidence 77

117Steel Dragons

Season APEX 270.4Event APEX 128.34Rank 11Record 5-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 595.2 ±12.4

5667The Digital Eagles

Season APEX 127.4Event APEX 9.5Rank 16Record 5-3-0Status establishedConfidence 92

340G.R.R. (Greater Rochester Robotics)

Season APEX 265.2Event APEX 177.91Rank 1Record 8-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4027Centre Punch

Season APEX 202.6Event APEX 119.21Rank 14Record 4-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4028, 4050, 117

/ 100 compat

Projected

343.8 pts

~1.7 RP (regional)

Teams: 4028, 4050, 117

Auto

52.9 16%

Teleop

190.7 57%

Endgame

91.7 27%

Strengths

· 4028 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 41%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5667, 340, 4027

/ 100 compat

Projected

306.6 pts

~1.4 RP (regional)

Teams: 5667, 340, 4027

Auto

52.4 17%

Teleop

180.9 59%

Endgame

73.4 24%

Strengths

· 340 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 41%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.69 · Blue 1.38

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score343.8pts

Blue projected score306.6pts

Red win probability61%

Event bonus sample164alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 41%, blue 55%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 37.2
Score range: 281–370
Upset likelihood: 39%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

High scoring

Combined score 522 vs event baseline 145.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

597Season APEX595.2

52.9Auto52.4

190.7Teleop180.9

91.7Endgame73.4

70Consistency85

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	81	81
teleop	121	133
endgame	31	55
foul	10	10
total	243	279

Result

Final score

243 – 279

Prediction missed · off by 64.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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