Qualification · Qualification 5

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

49.83 – 155.89

21%79%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

22 – 111

Prediction correct · off by 36.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 230.2 ±20.5

7274Brashear Bulls Robotics

Provisional

Season APEX 96.3Event APEX 14.46Rank 30Record 4-4-0Status provisionalConfidence 70

2010The Lightning Bots

Season APEX 83.1Event APEX 39.67Rank 23Record 4-4-0Status establishedConfidence 86

10300Obama FRC

Provisional

Season APEX 50.8Event APEX -4.3Rank 39Record 3-4-0Status provisionalConfidence 70

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 440.9 ±16.6

1511Rolling Thunder

Season APEX 205.3Event APEX 101.2Rank 5Record 7-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2656Quasics

Provisional

Season APEX 108.2Event APEX 36.98Rank 7Record 7-1-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

5667The Digital Eagles

Season APEX 127.4Event APEX 17.71Rank 16Record 5-3-0Status establishedConfidence 92

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 7274, 2010, 10300

/ 100 compat

Projected

49.8 pts

~0.9 RP (regional)

Teams: 7274, 2010, 10300

Auto

14.9 30%

Teleop

22.2 44%

Endgame

13.4 27%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 42%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1511, 2656, 5667

/ 100 compat

Projected

155.9 pts

~2.1 RP (regional)

Teams: 1511, 2656, 5667

Auto

19.8 13%

Teleop

88.4 57%

Endgame

46.6 30%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 42%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 0.88 · Blue 2.13

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score49.8pts

Blue projected score155.9pts

Red win probability21%

Event bonus sample164alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 42%, blue 50%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -106.1
Score range: 19–187
Upset likelihood: 21%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 133 vs event baseline 171.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

230.2Season APEX440.9

14.9Auto19.8

22.2Teleop88.4

13.4Endgame46.6

20Consistency27

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	17	4
teleop	5	79
endgame	0	28
foul	0	0
total	22	111

Result

Final score

22 – 111

Prediction correct · off by 36.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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