Qualification · Qualification 49

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

154.65 – 103.37

65%35%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

174 – 186

Prediction missed · off by 51 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 312.6 ±13.5

2641Pittsburgh Central Catholic Robotics

Season APEX 60.4Event APEX 12.2Rank 43Record 2-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2234Alternating Current

Season APEX 96.9Event APEX 31.89Rank 22Record 4-4-0Status establishedConfidence 91

9406TechJunior

Season APEX 155.3Event APEX 110.56Rank 4Record 7-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 275.7 ±17

2010The Lightning Bots

Season APEX 83.1Event APEX 29.15Rank 23Record 4-4-0Status establishedConfidence 86

1708AMP'D Robotics

Season APEX 76Event APEX 25.67Rank 24Record 4-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4269CardinalBots

Provisional

Season APEX 116.6Event APEX 48.55Rank 10Record 6-2-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2641, 2234, 9406

/ 100 compat

Projected

154.7 pts

~1.8 RP (regional)

Teams: 2641, 2234, 9406

Auto

43.0 27%

Teleop

97.7 62%

Endgame

16.4 10%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 45%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2010, 1708, 4269

/ 100 compat

Projected

103.4 pts

~1.2 RP (regional)

Teams: 2010, 1708, 4269

Auto

24.1 24%

Teleop

60.9 62%

Endgame

13.8 14%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 45%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.81 · Blue 1.24

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score154.7pts

Blue projected score103.4pts

Red win probability65%

Event bonus sample164alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 45%, blue 51%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 51.3
Score range: 77–181
Upset likelihood: 35%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

High scoring

Combined score 360 vs event baseline 145.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

312.6Season APEX275.7

43Auto24.1

97.7Teleop60.9

16.4Endgame13.8

0Consistency71

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	28	12
teleop	114	113
endgame	27	61
foul	5	0
total	174	186

Result

Final score

174 – 186

Prediction missed · off by 51 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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