Qualification · Qualification 48

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

56.41 – 97.03

38%62%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

49 – 82

Prediction correct · off by 11.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 271.6 ±18.2

4150FRobotics

Season APEX 77.9Event APEX 36.95Rank 35Record 3-5-0Status establishedConfidence 88

1317Digital Fusion

Provisional

Season APEX 45.3Event APEX 12.98Rank 46Record 1-7-0Status provisionalConfidence 70

3504Girls of Steel

Season APEX 148.4Event APEX 6.48Rank 18Record 4-4-0Status establishedConfidence 91

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 287.5 ±19.2

2656Quasics

Provisional

Season APEX 108.2Event APEX 49.93Rank 7Record 7-1-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

4991Horsepower

Provisional

Season APEX 72.5Event APEX 37.08Rank 45Record 2-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

7515Dark Side Robotics

Season APEX 106.8Event APEX 10.02Rank 21Record 5-3-0Status establishedConfidence 91

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4150, 1317, 3504

/ 100 compat

Projected

56.4 pts

~1.2 RP (regional)

Teams: 4150, 1317, 3504

Auto

0.9 2%

Teleop

27.1 51%

Endgame

25.2 47%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 44%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2656, 4991, 7515

/ 100 compat

Projected

97 pts

~1.7 RP (regional)

Teams: 2656, 4991, 7515

Auto

27.5 29%

Teleop

45.8 48%

Endgame

21.9 23%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 44%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.24 · Blue 1.66

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score56.4pts

Blue projected score97pts

Red win probability38%

Event bonus sample164alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 44%, blue 35%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -40.6
Score range: 30–123
Upset likelihood: 38%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 131 vs event baseline 146.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

271.6Season APEX287.5

0.9Auto27.5

27.1Teleop45.8

25.2Endgame21.9

0Consistency53

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	22	11
teleop	21	35
endgame	1	36
foul	5	0
total	49	82

Result

Final score

49 – 82

Prediction correct · off by 11.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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