Qualification · Qualification 47

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

96.07 – 253.77

12%88%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

46 – 332

Prediction correct · off by 64.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 241.2 ±17.7

5740Trojanators

Season APEX 153.2Event APEX 59.06Rank 13Record 5-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

11456UMWACC Ruff Creek RoboMiners

Provisional

Season APEX 40.5Event APEX 10.99Rank 50Record 1-7-0Status provisionalConfidence 70

2095Direct Current

Season APEX 47.5Event APEX 26.02Rank 31Record 4-4-0Status establishedConfidence 91

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 489.1 ±16.6

10516Code Red

Provisional

Season APEX 85Event APEX 0.18Rank 34Record 3-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 70

3015Ranger Robotics

A+

Season APEX 312.5Event APEX 212.46Rank 2Record 7-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3484Short Circuit

Season APEX 91.6Event APEX 41.13Rank 19Record 5-3-0Status establishedConfidence 86

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5740, 11456, 2095

/ 100 compat

Projected

96.1 pts

~0.7 RP (regional)

Teams: 5740, 11456, 2095

Auto

25.1 27%

Teleop

63.2 67%

Endgame

6.1 6%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 41%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10516, 3015, 3484

/ 100 compat

Projected

253.8 pts

~2.3 RP (regional)

Teams: 10516, 3015, 3484

Auto

72.1 28%

Teleop

133.1 52%

Endgame

50.5 20%

Strengths

· 3015 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 41%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 0.7 · Blue 2.29

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score96.1pts

Blue projected score253.8pts

Red win probability12%

Event bonus sample164alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 41%, blue 48%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -157.7
Score range: 70–280
Upset likelihood: 12%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 378 vs event baseline 145.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

241.2Season APEX489.1

25.1Auto72.1

63.2Teleop133.1

6.1Endgame50.5

18Consistency1

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	24	79
teleop	21	184
endgame	1	69
foul	0	0
total	46	332

Result

Final score

46 – 332

Prediction correct · off by 64.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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