Qualification · Qualification 46

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

297.53 – 36.42

96%4%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

218 – 41

Prediction correct · off by 42.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 417.5 ±15.9

8705Sci Tech FRC

Provisional

Season APEX 71Event APEX 28.45Rank 40Record 2-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 70

3990Tech for Kids

Season APEX 192.3Event APEX 161.89Rank 3Record 7-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3173IgKnighters

Season APEX 154.2Event APEX 107.19Rank 8Record 6-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 243.8 ±14.5

9642I.N.T. Robotics

Season APEX 94Event APEX 1.01Rank 27Record 4-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

709Femme Tech Fatale

Season APEX 84.1Event APEX 46.12Rank 29Record 4-4-0Status establishedConfidence 91

3324The Metrobots

Season APEX 65.7Event APEX -10.71Rank 47Record 1-7-0Status establishedConfidence 86

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8705, 3990, 3173

/ 100 compat

Projected

297.5 pts

~2.5 RP (regional)

Teams: 8705, 3990, 3173

Auto

63.2 21%

Teleop

164.6 55%

Endgame

72.8 24%

Strengths

· 3990 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 3%

Blue · 9642, 709, 3324

/ 100 compat

Projected

36.4 pts

~0.5 RP (regional)

Teams: 9642, 709, 3324

Auto

19.2 51%

Teleop

-19.7 0%

Endgame

37.9 100%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 3%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.48 · Blue 0.54

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score297.5pts

Blue projected score36.4pts

Red win probability96%

Event bonus sample164alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 49%, blue 43%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 261.1
Score range: 10–324
Upset likelihood: 4%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 259 vs event baseline 146.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

417.5Season APEX243.8

63.2Auto19.2

164.6Teleop-19.7

72.8Endgame37.9

98Consistency10

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	80	12
teleop	116	5
endgame	22	24
foul	0	0
total	218	41

Result

Final score

218 – 41

Prediction correct · off by 42.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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