Qualification · Qualification 45

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

165.51 – 0

91%9%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

90 – 50

Prediction correct · off by 62.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 375.6 ±17.3

4467Titanium Titans

Season APEX 191.4Event APEX 98.42Rank 12Record 5-3-0Status establishedConfidence 92

6032Pirate Robotics

Provisional

Season APEX 34.5Event APEX 33.08Rank 41Record 3-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 70

1816"The Green Machine"

Season APEX 149.7Event APEX 34.01Rank 17Record 5-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 233.3 ±20.9

10300Obama FRC

Provisional

Season APEX 50.8Event APEX -18.82Rank 39Record 3-4-0Status provisionalConfidence 70

10582The Technochauns

Season APEX 129.2Event APEX -18.76Rank 42Record 2-6-0Status establishedConfidence 85

9415Westinghouse Robotics

Provisional

Season APEX 53.3Event APEX 12.31Rank 38Record 3-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 70

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4467, 6032, 1816

/ 100 compat

Projected

165.5 pts

~2.2 RP (regional)

Teams: 4467, 6032, 1816

Auto

14.5 9%

Teleop

100.9 65%

Endgame

40.9 26%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 34%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10300, 10582, 9415

/ 100 compat

Projected

-25.3 pts

~0.5 RP (regional)

Teams: 10300, 10582, 9415

Auto

-4.2 17%

Teleop

-14.4 58%

Endgame

-6.2 25%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 34%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.23 · Blue 0.53

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score165.5pts

Blue projected score-25.3pts

Red win probability91%

Event bonus sample164alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 34%, blue 32%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 165.5
Score range: -27–193
Upset likelihood: 9%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 140 vs event baseline 147.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

375.6Season APEX233.3

14.5Auto-4.2

100.9Teleop-14.4

40.9Endgame-6.2

101Consistency187

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	21	19
teleop	48	30
endgame	16	1
foul	5	0
total	90	50

Result

Final score

90 – 50

Prediction correct · off by 62.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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