Qualification · Qualification 44

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

146.87 – 68.27

73%27%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

76 – 99

Prediction missed · off by 50.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 283.2 ±19.8

7274Brashear Bulls Robotics

Provisional

Season APEX 96.3Event APEX 35.84Rank 30Record 4-4-0Status provisionalConfidence 70

3260SHARP

Season APEX 81.6Event APEX 50.1Rank 36Record 2-6-0Status establishedConfidence 88

10513Team Humanity Robo Falcons

Provisional

Season APEX 105.3Event APEX 60.93Rank 9Record 6-2-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 301.4 ±17.7

1601Quantum Samurai

Season APEX 118.6Event APEX 14.43Rank 20Record 5-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

451Cat Attack Robotics

Season APEX 110.1Event APEX 43.07Rank 44Record 2-6-0Status establishedConfidence 92

10517Ctrl Alt Defeat

Provisional

Season APEX 72.7Event APEX 10.77Rank 28Record 4-4-0Status provisionalConfidence 70

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 7274, 3260, 10513

/ 100 compat

Projected

146.9 pts

~2.0 RP (regional)

Teams: 7274, 3260, 10513

Auto

35.2 24%

Teleop

85.2 58%

Endgame

26.4 18%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 50%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1601, 451, 10517

/ 100 compat

Projected

68.3 pts

~0.9 RP (regional)

Teams: 1601, 451, 10517

Auto

11.4 20%

Teleop

28.6 50%

Endgame

16.7 29%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 50%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2 · Blue 0.94

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score146.9pts

Blue projected score68.3pts

Red win probability73%

Event bonus sample164alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 50%, blue 35%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 78.6
Score range: 41–174
Upset likelihood: 27%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 175 vs event baseline 149.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

283.2Season APEX301.4

35.2Auto11.4

85.2Teleop28.6

26.4Endgame16.7

0Consistency42

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	31	16
teleop	21	55
endgame	24	28
foul	0	0
total	76	99

Result

Final score

76 – 99

Prediction missed · off by 50.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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