Qualification · Qualification 43

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

111.55 – 100.13

54%46%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

63 – 143

Prediction missed · off by 45.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 245.3 ±22.5

10515Aluminum Tethys

Provisional

Season APEX 41.5Event APEX -4.17Rank 49Record 1-7-0Status provisionalConfidence 70

9022MC Robotics

Provisional

Season APEX 128.6Event APEX 77.3Rank 25Record 3-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 70

63McDowell Robotics Team 63

Provisional

Season APEX 75.2Event APEX 38.42Rank 26Record 4-4-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 246.4 ±20

9653O.V.R.T.

Provisional

Season APEX 85.6Event APEX 39.05Rank 15Record 5-3-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

2614Mountaineer Area RoboticS (MARS)

Season APEX 107.6Event APEX 34.28Rank 33Record 3-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10512Beyond Grad Greyhounds

Provisional

Season APEX 53.2Event APEX 26.8Rank 37Record 3-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 70

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10515, 9022, 63

/ 100 compat

Projected

111.6 pts

~1.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 10515, 9022, 63

Auto

35.1 33%

Teleop

47.8 45%

Endgame

22.7 21%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 47%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9653, 2614, 10512

/ 100 compat

Projected

100.1 pts

~1.4 RP (regional)

Teams: 9653, 2614, 10512

Auto

20.7 22%

Teleop

58.9 63%

Endgame

13.7 15%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 47%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.58 · Blue 1.36

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score111.6pts

Blue projected score100.1pts

Red win probability54%

Event bonus sample164alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 47%, blue 39%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 11.4
Score range: 73–139
Upset likelihood: 46%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 206 vs event baseline 150.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

245.3Season APEX246.4

35.1Auto20.7

47.8Teleop58.9

22.7Endgame13.7

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	17	12
teleop	26	82
endgame	20	49
foul	0	0
total	63	143

Result

Final score

63 – 143

Prediction missed · off by 45.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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