Qualification · Qualification 42

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

28.82 – 158.63

17%83%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

70 – 107

Prediction correct · off by 46.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 225.6 ±22.5

10516Code Red

Provisional

Season APEX 85Event APEX -7.89Rank 34Record 3-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 70

1317Digital Fusion

Provisional

Season APEX 45.3Event APEX 4.75Rank 46Record 1-7-0Status provisionalConfidence 70

9475Mon Valley Mammoths

Provisional

Season APEX 95.3Event APEX 31.96Rank 32Record 3-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 70

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 343.6 ±13.9

4150FRobotics

Season APEX 77.9Event APEX 41.59Rank 35Record 3-5-0Status establishedConfidence 88

2641Pittsburgh Central Catholic Robotics

Season APEX 60.4Event APEX 25.43Rank 43Record 2-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1511Rolling Thunder

Season APEX 205.3Event APEX 91.61Rank 5Record 7-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10516, 1317, 9475

/ 100 compat

Projected

28.8 pts

~0.8 RP (regional)

Teams: 10516, 1317, 9475

Auto

6.8 22%

Teleop

20.2 65%

Endgame

4.0 13%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 43%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4150, 2641, 1511

/ 100 compat

Projected

158.6 pts

~2.1 RP (regional)

Teams: 4150, 2641, 1511

Auto

4.9 3%

Teleop

100.3 64%

Endgame

51.2 33%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 43%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 0.8 · Blue 2.06

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score28.8pts

Blue projected score158.6pts

Red win probability17%

Event bonus sample164alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 43%, blue 35%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -129.8
Score range: 2–186
Upset likelihood: 17%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 177 vs event baseline 151.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

225.6Season APEX343.6

6.8Auto4.9

20.2Teleop100.3

4Endgame51.2

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	19	17
teleop	26	52
endgame	25	33
foul	0	5
total	70	107

Result

Final score

70 – 107

Prediction correct · off by 46.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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