Qualification · Qualification 4

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

300.78 – 212.82

75%25%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

328 – 102

Prediction correct · off by 69 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 513.1 ±18.4

10513Team Humanity Robo Falcons

Provisional

Season APEX 105.3Event APEX 42.02Rank 9Record 6-2-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

3015Ranger Robotics

A+

Season APEX 312.5Event APEX 233.29Rank 2Record 7-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9475Mon Valley Mammoths

Provisional

Season APEX 95.3Event APEX 25.47Rank 32Record 3-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 70

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 337.8 ±13.3

2614Mountaineer Area RoboticS (MARS)

Season APEX 107.6Event APEX 57.32Rank 33Record 3-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3173IgKnighters

Season APEX 154.2Event APEX 109.42Rank 8Record 6-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1708AMP'D Robotics

Season APEX 76Event APEX 46.08Rank 24Record 4-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10513, 3015, 9475

/ 100 compat

Projected

300.8 pts

~2.1 RP (regional)

Teams: 10513, 3015, 9475

Auto

65.6 22%

Teleop

172.9 58%

Endgame

58.1 20%

Strengths

· 3015 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 54%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2614, 3173, 1708

/ 100 compat

Projected

212.8 pts

~1.0 RP (regional)

Teams: 2614, 3173, 1708

Auto

32.2 16%

Teleop

132.8 65%

Endgame

38.8 19%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 54%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.09 · Blue 0.99

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score300.8pts

Blue projected score212.8pts

Red win probability75%

Event bonus sample164alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 54%, blue 45%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 88
Score range: 182–332
Upset likelihood: 25%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 430 vs event baseline 171.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

513.1Season APEX337.8

65.6Auto32.2

172.9Teleop132.8

58.1Endgame38.8

8Consistency89

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	59	20
teleop	207	77
endgame	57	0
foul	5	5
total	328	102

Result

Final score

328 – 102

Prediction correct · off by 69 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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