Qualification · Qualification 39

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

149.26 – 134.21

55%45%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

191 – 190

Prediction correct · off by 48.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 380.7 ±19.8

10517Ctrl Alt Defeat

Provisional

Season APEX 72.7Event APEX 5.61Rank 28Record 4-4-0Status provisionalConfidence 70

4269CardinalBots

Provisional

Season APEX 116.6Event APEX 43.44Rank 10Record 6-2-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

4467Titanium Titans

Season APEX 191.4Event APEX 100.21Rank 12Record 5-3-0Status establishedConfidence 92

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 391.7 ±14.5

3173IgKnighters

Season APEX 154.2Event APEX 95.33Rank 8Record 6-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5667The Digital Eagles

Season APEX 127.4Event APEX 0.4Rank 16Record 5-3-0Status establishedConfidence 92

451Cat Attack Robotics

Season APEX 110.1Event APEX 38.48Rank 44Record 2-6-0Status establishedConfidence 92

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10517, 4269, 4467

/ 100 compat

Projected

149.3 pts

~1.7 RP (regional)

Teams: 10517, 4269, 4467

Auto

25.8 18%

Teleop

74.1 53%

Endgame

39.7 28%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 53%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3173, 5667, 451

/ 100 compat

Projected

134.2 pts

~1.4 RP (regional)

Teams: 3173, 5667, 451

Auto

19.5 14%

Teleop

100.7 73%

Endgame

18.4 13%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 53%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.68 · Blue 1.35

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score149.3pts

Blue projected score134.2pts

Red win probability55%

Event bonus sample164alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 53%, blue 40%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 15
Score range: 107–176
Upset likelihood: 45%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Close match

High scoring

Combined score 381 vs event baseline 150.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

380.7Season APEX391.7

25.8Auto19.5

74.1Teleop100.7

39.7Endgame18.4

64Consistency153

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	30	30
teleop	104	117
endgame	42	43
foul	15	0
total	191	190

Result

Final score

191 – 190

Prediction correct · off by 48.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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