Qualification · Qualification 38

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

0 – 179.3

9%91%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

51 – 150

Prediction correct · off by 40.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 173.9 ±20.5

10300Obama FRC

Provisional

Season APEX 50.8Event APEX -32.88Rank 39Record 3-4-0Status provisionalConfidence 70

10515Aluminum Tethys

Provisional

Season APEX 41.5Event APEX -14.51Rank 49Record 1-7-0Status provisionalConfidence 70

3260SHARP

Season APEX 81.6Event APEX 37.52Rank 36Record 2-6-0Status establishedConfidence 88

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 354.6 ±15.1

9406TechJunior

Season APEX 155.3Event APEX 113.01Rank 4Record 7-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10513Team Humanity Robo Falcons

Provisional

Season APEX 105.3Event APEX 67.05Rank 9Record 6-2-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

9642I.N.T. Robotics

Season APEX 94Event APEX -0.76Rank 27Record 4-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10300, 10515, 3260

/ 100 compat

Projected

-9.9 pts

~0.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 10300, 10515, 3260

Auto

16.3 0%

Teleop

-2.8 39%

Endgame

-20.7 100%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 38%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9406, 10513, 9642

/ 100 compat

Projected

179.3 pts

~2.4 RP (regional)

Teams: 9406, 10513, 9642

Auto

48.3 28%

Teleop

96.2 55%

Endgame

30.7 18%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 38%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 0.6 · Blue 2.44

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score-9.9pts

Blue projected score179.3pts

Red win probability9%

Event bonus sample164alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 38%, blue 56%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -179.3
Score range: -27–206
Upset likelihood: 9%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 201 vs event baseline 151.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

173.9Season APEX354.6

16.3Auto48.3

-2.8Teleop96.2

-20.7Endgame30.7

75Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	22	23
teleop	17	91
endgame	12	36
foul	0	0
total	51	150

Result

Final score

51 – 150

Prediction correct · off by 40.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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