Qualification · Qualification 37

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

221.61 – 70.43

87%13%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

286 – 93

Prediction correct · off by 43.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 447.1 ±19.3

340G.R.R. (Greater Rochester Robotics)

Season APEX 265.2Event APEX 161.33Rank 1Record 8-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9653O.V.R.T.

Provisional

Season APEX 85.6Event APEX 33.54Rank 15Record 5-3-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

7274Brashear Bulls Robotics

Provisional

Season APEX 96.3Event APEX 26.74Rank 30Record 4-4-0Status provisionalConfidence 70

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 285.8 ±18

709Femme Tech Fatale

Season APEX 84.1Event APEX 44.91Rank 29Record 4-4-0Status establishedConfidence 91

4991Horsepower

Provisional

Season APEX 72.5Event APEX 48.24Rank 45Record 2-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

10582The Technochauns

Season APEX 129.2Event APEX -22.72Rank 42Record 2-6-0Status establishedConfidence 85

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 340, 9653, 7274

/ 100 compat

Projected

221.6 pts

~2.3 RP (regional)

Teams: 340, 9653, 7274

Auto

52.2 24%

Teleop

116.5 53%

Endgame

53.2 24%

Strengths

· 340 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 709, 4991, 10582

/ 100 compat

Projected

70.4 pts

~0.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 709, 4991, 10582

Auto

14.9 23%

Teleop

15.1 23%

Endgame

36.2 55%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.28 · Blue 0.62

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score221.6pts

Blue projected score70.4pts

Red win probability87%

Event bonus sample164alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 49%, blue 32%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 151.2
Score range: 43–249
Upset likelihood: 13%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 379 vs event baseline 150.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

447.1Season APEX285.8

52.2Auto14.9

116.5Teleop15.1

53.2Endgame36.2

71Consistency118

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	62	34
teleop	152	20
endgame	72	39
foul	0	0
total	286	93

Result

Final score

286 – 93

Prediction correct · off by 43.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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