Qualification · Qualification 36

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

205.45 – 119.94

74%26%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

209 – 171

Prediction correct · off by 27.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 396 ±14.1

7515Dark Side Robotics

Season APEX 106.8Event APEX 10.51Rank 21Record 5-3-0Status establishedConfidence 91

3990Tech for Kids

Season APEX 192.3Event APEX 160.55Rank 3Record 7-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2234Alternating Current

Season APEX 96.9Event APEX 34.39Rank 22Record 4-4-0Status establishedConfidence 91

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 373.6 ±19.7

9475Mon Valley Mammoths

Provisional

Season APEX 95.3Event APEX 20.81Rank 32Record 3-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 70

1816"The Green Machine"

Season APEX 149.7Event APEX 30.99Rank 17Record 5-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9022MC Robotics

Provisional

Season APEX 128.6Event APEX 68.14Rank 25Record 3-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 70

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 7515, 3990, 2234

/ 100 compat

Projected

205.5 pts

~2.0 RP (regional)

Teams: 7515, 3990, 2234

Auto

45.1 22%

Teleop

125.8 61%

Endgame

36.6 18%

Strengths

· 3990 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 50%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 3%

Blue · 9475, 1816, 9022

/ 100 compat

Projected

119.9 pts

~1.1 RP (regional)

Teams: 9475, 1816, 9022

Auto

2.5 2%

Teleop

60.3 55%

Endgame

47.2 43%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 50%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 3%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.04 · Blue 1.1

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score205.5pts

Blue projected score119.9pts

Red win probability74%

Event bonus sample164alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 50%, blue 54%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 85.5
Score range: 93–232
Upset likelihood: 26%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 380 vs event baseline 149.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

396Season APEX373.6

45.1Auto2.5

125.8Teleop60.3

36.6Endgame47.2

29Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	61	14
teleop	105	95
endgame	43	57
foul	0	5
total	209	171

Result

Final score

209 – 171

Prediction correct · off by 27.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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