Qualification · Qualification 35

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

128.12 – 62.12

69%31%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

355 – 68

Prediction correct · off by 116.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 515.5 ±12.2

4027Centre Punch

Season APEX 202.6Event APEX 84.61Rank 14Record 4-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1511Rolling Thunder

Season APEX 205.3Event APEX 49.86Rank 5Record 7-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2614Mountaineer Area RoboticS (MARS)

Season APEX 107.6Event APEX -6.35Rank 33Record 3-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 210.5 ±18.2

10512Beyond Grad Greyhounds

Provisional

Season APEX 53.2Event APEX 23.92Rank 37Record 3-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 70

3324The Metrobots

Season APEX 65.7Event APEX -13.83Rank 47Record 1-7-0Status establishedConfidence 86

3484Short Circuit

Season APEX 91.6Event APEX 52.03Rank 19Record 5-3-0Status establishedConfidence 86

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4027, 1511, 2614

/ 100 compat

Projected

128.1 pts

~1.9 RP (regional)

Teams: 4027, 1511, 2614

Auto

17.6 15%

Teleop

41.9 36%

Endgame

56.4 49%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 48%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 3%

Blue · 10512, 3324, 3484

/ 100 compat

Projected

62.1 pts

~1.1 RP (regional)

Teams: 10512, 3324, 3484

Auto

18.0 30%

Teleop

20.2 34%

Endgame

22.0 37%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 48%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 3%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.92 · Blue 1.05

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score128.1pts

Blue projected score62.1pts

Red win probability69%

Event bonus sample164alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 48%, blue 39%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 66
Score range: 35–155
Upset likelihood: 31%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 423 vs event baseline 147.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

515.5Season APEX210.5

17.6Auto18

41.9Teleop20.2

56.4Endgame22

70Consistency15

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	42	7
teleop	223	35
endgame	90	26
foul	0	0
total	355	68

Result

Final score

355 – 68

Prediction correct · off by 116.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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