Qualification · Qualification 33

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

114.59 – 201.16

25%75%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

134 – 244

Prediction correct · off by 31.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 368.5 ±14.5

2010The Lightning Bots

Season APEX 83.1Event APEX 37.92Rank 23Record 4-4-0Status establishedConfidence 86

4467Titanium Titans

Season APEX 191.4Event APEX 76.79Rank 12Record 5-3-0Status establishedConfidence 92

9642I.N.T. Robotics

Season APEX 94Event APEX -0.12Rank 27Record 4-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 418.7 ±16.9

2095Direct Current

Season APEX 47.5Event APEX 25.25Rank 31Record 4-4-0Status establishedConfidence 91

4028The Beak Squad

Season APEX 286.2Event APEX 179.34Rank 6Record 6-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10516Code Red

Provisional

Season APEX 85Event APEX -3.43Rank 34Record 3-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 70

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2010, 4467, 9642

/ 100 compat

Projected

114.6 pts

~1.1 RP (regional)

Teams: 2010, 4467, 9642

Auto

17.4 17%

Teleop

58.0 56%

Endgame

27.8 27%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 55%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2095, 4028, 10516

/ 100 compat

Projected

201.2 pts

~2.0 RP (regional)

Teams: 2095, 4028, 10516

Auto

38.0 19%

Teleop

99.3 51%

Endgame

58.7 30%

Strengths

· 4028 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 55%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.11 · Blue 1.98

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score114.6pts

Blue projected score201.2pts

Red win probability25%

Event bonus sample164alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 55%, blue 44%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -86.6
Score range: 89–227
Upset likelihood: 25%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 378 vs event baseline 144.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

368.5Season APEX418.7

17.4Auto38

58Teleop99.3

27.8Endgame58.7

19Consistency94

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	28	56
teleop	61	165
endgame	35	23
foul	10	0
total	134	244

Result

Final score

134 – 244

Prediction correct · off by 31.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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