Qualification · Qualification 32

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

20.52 – 0

61%39%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

79 – 45

Prediction correct · off by 51.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 315.3 ±15.7

451Cat Attack Robotics

Season APEX 110.1Event APEX 19.95Rank 44Record 2-6-0Status establishedConfidence 92

10582The Technochauns

Season APEX 129.2Event APEX -17.42Rank 42Record 2-6-0Status establishedConfidence 85

1708AMP'D Robotics

Season APEX 76Event APEX 17.99Rank 24Record 4-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 153 ±22.5

11456UMWACC Ruff Creek RoboMiners

Provisional

Season APEX 40.5Event APEX -9.91Rank 50Record 1-7-0Status provisionalConfidence 70

8705Sci Tech FRC

Provisional

Season APEX 71Event APEX 5.9Rank 40Record 2-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 70

10515Aluminum Tethys

Provisional

Season APEX 41.5Event APEX -10.41Rank 49Record 1-7-0Status provisionalConfidence 70

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 451, 10582, 1708

/ 100 compat

Projected

20.5 pts

~1.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 451, 10582, 1708

Auto

6.7 30%

Teleop

19.8 88%

Endgame

-4.0 0%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 32%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 11456, 8705, 10515

/ 100 compat

Projected

-14.4 pts

~1.2 RP (regional)

Teams: 11456, 8705, 10515

Auto

11.2 0%

Teleop

-23.5 100%

Endgame

-4.8 28%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 32%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.58 · Blue 1.18

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score20.5pts

Blue projected score-14.4pts

Red win probability61%

Event bonus sample164alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 32%, blue 34%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 20.5
Score range: -26–47
Upset likelihood: 39%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 124 vs event baseline 146.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

315.3Season APEX153

6.7Auto11.2

19.8Teleop-23.5

-4Endgame-4.8

224Consistency175

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	0	30
teleop	58	10
endgame	6	0
foul	15	5
total	79	45

Result

Final score

79 – 45

Prediction correct · off by 51.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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