Qualification · Qualification 31

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

190.57 – 105.99

74%26%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

284 – 24

Prediction correct · off by 87.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 531.4 ±12.9

7515Dark Side Robotics

Season APEX 106.8Event APEX -16.68Rank 21Record 5-3-0Status establishedConfidence 91

117Steel Dragons

Season APEX 270.4Event APEX 108.94Rank 11Record 5-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3173IgKnighters

Season APEX 154.2Event APEX 98.31Rank 8Record 6-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 233.3 ±20.5

2234Alternating Current

Season APEX 96.9Event APEX 65.5Rank 22Record 4-4-0Status establishedConfidence 91

10300Obama FRC

Provisional

Season APEX 50.8Event APEX -12.19Rank 39Record 3-4-0Status provisionalConfidence 70

9653O.V.R.T.

Provisional

Season APEX 85.6Event APEX 52.68Rank 15Record 5-3-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 7515, 117, 3173

/ 100 compat

Projected

190.6 pts

~2.0 RP (regional)

Teams: 7515, 117, 3173

Auto

37.9 20%

Teleop

112.1 58%

Endgame

44.3 23%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 48%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 3%

Blue · 2234, 10300, 9653

/ 100 compat

Projected

106 pts

~1.0 RP (regional)

Teams: 2234, 10300, 9653

Auto

23.4 20%

Teleop

90.8 79%

Endgame

0.5 0%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 48%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 3%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.01 · Blue 1.03

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score190.6pts

Blue projected score106pts

Red win probability74%

Event bonus sample164alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 48%, blue 48%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 84.6
Score range: 80–217
Upset likelihood: 26%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 308 vs event baseline 146.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

531.4Season APEX233.3

37.9Auto23.4

112.1Teleop90.8

44.3Endgame0.5

79Consistency97

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	34	19
teleop	187	5
endgame	63	0
foul	0	0
total	284	24

Result

Final score

284 – 24

Prediction correct · off by 87.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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