Qualification · Qualification 30

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

93.48 – 204.3

20%80%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

117 – 135

Prediction correct · off by 46.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 298.4 ±19.4

4991Horsepower

Provisional

Season APEX 72.5Event APEX 34.76Rank 45Record 2-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

10517Ctrl Alt Defeat

Provisional

Season APEX 72.7Event APEX 25.27Rank 28Record 4-4-0Status provisionalConfidence 70

5740Trojanators

Season APEX 153.2Event APEX 33.45Rank 13Record 5-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 387.2 ±19.7

9415Westinghouse Robotics

Provisional

Season APEX 53.3Event APEX 34.25Rank 38Record 3-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 70

9022MC Robotics

Provisional

Season APEX 128.6Event APEX 109.01Rank 25Record 3-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 70

1511Rolling Thunder

Season APEX 205.3Event APEX 61.04Rank 5Record 7-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4991, 10517, 5740

/ 100 compat

Projected

93.5 pts

~0.8 RP (regional)

Teams: 4991, 10517, 5740

Auto

26.8 31%

Teleop

51.4 59%

Endgame

8.3 10%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 41%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9415, 9022, 1511

/ 100 compat

Projected

204.3 pts

~2.1 RP (regional)

Teams: 9415, 9022, 1511

Auto

15.6 8%

Teleop

121.5 59%

Endgame

68.7 33%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 41%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 0.85 · Blue 2.13

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score93.5pts

Blue projected score204.3pts

Red win probability20%

Event bonus sample164alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 41%, blue 49%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -110.8
Score range: 66–231
Upset likelihood: 20%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 252 vs event baseline 147.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

298.4Season APEX387.2

26.8Auto15.6

51.4Teleop121.5

8.3Endgame68.7

99Consistency61

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	18	14
teleop	81	68
endgame	18	53
foul	0	0
total	117	135

Result

Final score

117 – 135

Prediction correct · off by 46.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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