Qualification · Qualification 3

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

116 – 25.09

76%24%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

82 – 27

Prediction correct · off by 18 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 307.5 ±17.5

4269CardinalBots

Provisional

Season APEX 116.6Event APEX 63.96Rank 10Record 6-2-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

7515Dark Side Robotics

Season APEX 106.8Event APEX 11.31Rank 21Record 5-3-0Status establishedConfidence 91

709Femme Tech Fatale

Season APEX 84.1Event APEX 40.73Rank 29Record 4-4-0Status establishedConfidence 91

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 166.5 ±18.2

2095Direct Current

Season APEX 47.5Event APEX 9.16Rank 31Record 4-4-0Status establishedConfidence 91

3324The Metrobots

Season APEX 65.7Event APEX -4.1Rank 47Record 1-7-0Status establishedConfidence 86

9415Westinghouse Robotics

Provisional

Season APEX 53.3Event APEX 20.03Rank 38Record 3-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 70

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4269, 7515, 709

/ 100 compat

Projected

116 pts

~2.0 RP (regional)

Teams: 4269, 7515, 709

Auto

30.3 26%

Teleop

32.4 28%

Endgame

52.4 46%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 42%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 3%

Blue · 2095, 3324, 9415

/ 100 compat

Projected

25.1 pts

~0.9 RP (regional)

Teams: 2095, 3324, 9415

Auto

6.7 28%

Teleop

16.7 70%

Endgame

0.6 3%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 42%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 3%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.98 · Blue 0.9

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score116pts

Blue projected score25.1pts

Red win probability76%

Event bonus sample164alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 42%, blue 37%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 90.9
Score range: -6–147
Upset likelihood: 24%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 109 vs event baseline 171.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

307.5Season APEX166.5

30.3Auto6.7

32.4Teleop16.7

52.4Endgame0.6

54Consistency92

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	30	6
teleop	16	16
endgame	36	5
foul	0	0
total	82	27

Result

Final score

82 – 27

Prediction correct · off by 18 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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