Qualification · Qualification 29

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

57.28 – 227.1

11%89%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

111 – 291

Prediction correct · off by 58.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 210.2 ±20.8

4269CardinalBots

Provisional

Season APEX 116.6Event APEX 35.46Rank 10Record 6-2-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

10512Beyond Grad Greyhounds

Provisional

Season APEX 53.2Event APEX 13.97Rank 37Record 3-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 70

4050Biohazard

Season APEX 40.4Event APEX 7.85Rank 48Record 1-7-0Status establishedConfidence 77

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 382.1 ±16.2

3990Tech for Kids

Season APEX 192.3Event APEX 159.31Rank 3Record 7-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3260SHARP

Season APEX 81.6Event APEX 8.36Rank 36Record 2-6-0Status establishedConfidence 88

2656Quasics

Provisional

Season APEX 108.2Event APEX 59.43Rank 7Record 7-1-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4269, 10512, 4050

/ 100 compat

Projected

57.3 pts

~0.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 4269, 10512, 4050

Auto

6.1 10%

Teleop

41.2 70%

Endgame

11.4 19%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 33%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3990, 3260, 2656

/ 100 compat

Projected

227.1 pts

~2.4 RP (regional)

Teams: 3990, 3260, 2656

Auto

60.7 26%

Teleop

101.4 44%

Endgame

67.0 29%

Strengths

· 3990 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 33%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 0.59 · Blue 2.38

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score57.3pts

Blue projected score227.1pts

Red win probability11%

Event bonus sample164alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 33%, blue 53%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 5%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -169.8
Score range: 31–253
Upset likelihood: 11%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 402 vs event baseline 145.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

210.2Season APEX382.1

6.1Auto60.7

41.2Teleop101.4

11.4Endgame67

36Consistency90

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	13	69
teleop	51	179
endgame	37	43
foul	10	0
total	111	291

Result

Final score

111 – 291

Prediction correct · off by 58.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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