Qualification · Qualification 28

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

197.37 – 231.66

39%61%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

171 – 285

Prediction correct · off by 39.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 389.5 ±16.9

9475Mon Valley Mammoths

Provisional

Season APEX 95.3Event APEX 46.91Rank 32Record 3-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 70

3484Short Circuit

Season APEX 91.6Event APEX 72.57Rank 19Record 5-3-0Status establishedConfidence 86

4027Centre Punch

Season APEX 202.6Event APEX 77.89Rank 14Record 4-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 445.7 ±18.7

340G.R.R. (Greater Rochester Robotics)

Season APEX 265.2Event APEX 128.4Rank 1Record 8-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

63McDowell Robotics Team 63

Provisional

Season APEX 75.2Event APEX 31.06Rank 26Record 4-4-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

10513Team Humanity Robo Falcons

Provisional

Season APEX 105.3Event APEX 72.2Rank 9Record 6-2-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9475, 3484, 4027

/ 100 compat

Projected

197.4 pts

~1.4 RP (regional)

Teams: 9475, 3484, 4027

Auto

30.5 15%

Teleop

115.2 58%

Endgame

54.6 27%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 52%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 3%

Blue · 340, 63, 10513

/ 100 compat

Projected

231.7 pts

~1.8 RP (regional)

Teams: 340, 63, 10513

Auto

46.2 20%

Teleop

118.4 51%

Endgame

66.0 29%

Strengths

· 340 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 52%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 3%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.36 · Blue 1.78

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score197.4pts

Blue projected score231.7pts

Red win probability39%

Event bonus sample164alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 52%, blue 52%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -34.3
Score range: 171–258
Upset likelihood: 39%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 456 vs event baseline 142.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

389.5Season APEX445.7

30.5Auto46.2

115.2Teleop118.4

54.6Endgame66

0Consistency41

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	15	69
teleop	72	139
endgame	64	67
foul	20	10
total	171	285

Result

Final score

171 – 285

Prediction correct · off by 39.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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