Qualification · Qualification 25

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

110.82 – 4.97

79%21%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

161 – 37

Prediction correct · off by 41.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 378.2 ±13.9

2234Alternating Current

Season APEX 96.9Event APEX 54.99Rank 22Record 4-4-0Status establishedConfidence 91

1511Rolling Thunder

Season APEX 205.3Event APEX 56.1Rank 5Record 7-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1708AMP'D Robotics

Season APEX 76Event APEX -0.27Rank 24Record 4-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 310.9 ±14.5

7515Dark Side Robotics

Season APEX 106.8Event APEX -12.79Rank 21Record 5-3-0Status establishedConfidence 91

9642I.N.T. Robotics

Season APEX 94Event APEX 3.15Rank 27Record 4-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

451Cat Attack Robotics

Season APEX 110.1Event APEX 14.61Rank 44Record 2-6-0Status establishedConfidence 92

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2234, 1511, 1708

/ 100 compat

Projected

110.8 pts

~2.1 RP (regional)

Teams: 2234, 1511, 1708

Auto

4.9 4%

Teleop

67.2 61%

Endgame

37.6 34%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 53%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 7515, 9642, 451

/ 100 compat

Projected

5 pts

~0.8 RP (regional)

Teams: 7515, 9642, 451

Auto

9.2 100%

Teleop

-11.8 0%

Endgame

5.0 100%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 53%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.15 · Blue 0.81

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score110.8pts

Blue projected score5pts

Red win probability79%

Event bonus sample164alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 53%, blue 34%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 105.9
Score range: -21–137
Upset likelihood: 21%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 198 vs event baseline 146.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

378.2Season APEX310.9

4.9Auto9.2

67.2Teleop-11.8

37.6Endgame5

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	18	8
teleop	121	4
endgame	22	20
foul	0	5
total	161	37

Result

Final score

161 – 37

Prediction correct · off by 41.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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