Qualification · Qualification 24

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

94.29 – 121.34

42%58%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

56 – 275

Prediction correct · off by 96 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 189.1 ±20.8

4050Biohazard

Season APEX 40.4Event APEX 15.78Rank 48Record 1-7-0Status establishedConfidence 77

11456UMWACC Ruff Creek RoboMiners

Provisional

Season APEX 40.5Event APEX 4.09Rank 50Record 1-7-0Status provisionalConfidence 70

2656Quasics

Provisional

Season APEX 108.2Event APEX 74.42Rank 7Record 7-1-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 431.2 ±17.3

4467Titanium Titans

Season APEX 191.4Event APEX 33.52Rank 12Record 5-3-0Status establishedConfidence 92

3173IgKnighters

Season APEX 154.2Event APEX 72.79Rank 8Record 6-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9653O.V.R.T.

Provisional

Season APEX 85.6Event APEX 15.03Rank 15Record 5-3-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4050, 11456, 2656

/ 100 compat

Projected

94.3 pts

~1.2 RP (regional)

Teams: 4050, 11456, 2656

Auto

22.1 23%

Teleop

32.8 34%

Endgame

40.3 42%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 33%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4467, 3173, 9653

/ 100 compat

Projected

121.3 pts

~1.8 RP (regional)

Teams: 4467, 3173, 9653

Auto

21.5 18%

Teleop

93.0 78%

Endgame

5.4 5%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 33%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.21 · Blue 1.78

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score94.3pts

Blue projected score121.3pts

Red win probability42%

Event bonus sample164alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 33%, blue 56%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -27
Score range: 68–147
Upset likelihood: 42%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 331 vs event baseline 145.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

189.1Season APEX431.2

22.1Auto21.5

32.8Teleop93

40.3Endgame5.4

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	13	40
teleop	20	178
endgame	18	57
foul	5	0
total	56	275

Result

Final score

56 – 275

Prediction correct · off by 96 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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