Qualification · Qualification 23

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

30.86 – 147.88

19%81%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

49 – 245

Prediction correct · off by 57.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 290.2 ±16.2

10582The Technochauns

Season APEX 129.2Event APEX -20.72Rank 42Record 2-6-0Status establishedConfidence 85

4150FRobotics

Season APEX 77.9Event APEX 27.66Rank 35Record 3-5-0Status establishedConfidence 88

2010The Lightning Bots

Season APEX 83.1Event APEX 23.92Rank 23Record 4-4-0Status establishedConfidence 86

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 478.6 ±16.2

3484Short Circuit

Season APEX 91.6Event APEX 39.94Rank 19Record 5-3-0Status establishedConfidence 86

117Steel Dragons

Season APEX 270.4Event APEX 103.35Rank 11Record 5-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4269CardinalBots

Provisional

Season APEX 116.6Event APEX 4.59Rank 10Record 6-2-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10582, 4150, 2010

/ 100 compat

Projected

30.9 pts

~0.8 RP (regional)

Teams: 10582, 4150, 2010

Auto

4.6 15%

Teleop

12.2 39%

Endgame

14.2 46%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 42%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3484, 117, 4269

/ 100 compat

Projected

147.9 pts

~2.2 RP (regional)

Teams: 3484, 117, 4269

Auto

34.5 25%

Teleop

52.0 38%

Endgame

51.3 37%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 42%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 0.83 · Blue 2.19

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score30.9pts

Blue projected score147.9pts

Red win probability19%

Event bonus sample164alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 42%, blue 53%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -117
Score range: 5–174
Upset likelihood: 19%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 294 vs event baseline 145.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

290.2Season APEX478.6

4.6Auto34.5

12.2Teleop52

14.2Endgame51.3

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	9	52
teleop	34	123
endgame	6	70
foul	0	0
total	49	245

Result

Final score

49 – 245

Prediction correct · off by 57.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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