Qualification · Qualification 22

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

55.33 – 59.32

49%51%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

43 – 68

Prediction correct · off by 10.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 198.6 ±20

10512Beyond Grad Greyhounds

Provisional

Season APEX 53.2Event APEX 27.53Rank 37Record 3-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 70

10516Code Red

Provisional

Season APEX 85Event APEX 1.52Rank 34Record 3-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 70

2641Pittsburgh Central Catholic Robotics

Season APEX 60.4Event APEX 26.28Rank 43Record 2-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 227.1 ±22

10300Obama FRC

Provisional

Season APEX 50.8Event APEX -20.87Rank 39Record 3-4-0Status provisionalConfidence 70

8705Sci Tech FRC

Provisional

Season APEX 71Event APEX 10.46Rank 40Record 2-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 70

10513Team Humanity Robo Falcons

Provisional

Season APEX 105.3Event APEX 69.73Rank 9Record 6-2-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10512, 10516, 2641

/ 100 compat

Projected

55.3 pts

~1.3 RP (regional)

Teams: 10512, 10516, 2641

Auto

12.1 21%

Teleop

61.5 100%

Endgame

-15.1 0%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 30%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10300, 8705, 10513

/ 100 compat

Projected

59.3 pts

~1.5 RP (regional)

Teams: 10300, 8705, 10513

Auto

-4.9 0%

Teleop

42.1 71%

Endgame

21.8 37%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 30%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.31 · Blue 1.49

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score55.3pts

Blue projected score59.3pts

Red win probability49%

Event bonus sample164alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 30%, blue 41%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -4
Score range: 28–86
Upset likelihood: 49%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 111 vs event baseline 149.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

198.6Season APEX227.1

12.1Auto-4.9

61.5Teleop42.1

-15.1Endgame21.8

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	14	33
teleop	22	19
endgame	7	16
foul	0	0
total	43	68

Result

Final score

43 – 68

Prediction correct · off by 10.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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